Current sign-up offers from legal US prediction market operators. Every offer is checked and dated.
Legal prediction market apps are in a mad scramble for market share and new users, so the current promotional landscape is unusually customer-friendly.
On this page, we list and categorize up to date prediction market bonuses, explain how they work, and tell you what to know before you claim an offer. Just as importantly, we explain how to evaluate the true value of prediction market bonuses and where to learn more about any given offer.
$50
No code required
$10
No code required
These are the latest welcome bonuses and sign-up offers from prediction market apps in the USA. We check and verify every prediction market bonus regularly.
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(Our Methodology)
We rank prediction market promotions by realized value: what a typical new user can reasonably expect to withdraw, not the number you see on the social media ad.
The best prediction market bonuses typically give new users a certain amount of non-withdrawable trading credits. The headline numbers you see when evaluating prediction market promotions are accurate, but they rarely match what you’ll actually receive in withdrawable funds after accounting for risk and fees.
Three factors account for the difference between face value and actual value:
Withdrawability: Most prediction market bonuses are trading credits, not cash. The bonus credit itself is usually non-withdrawable; only the net profit you generate is money you can withdraw.
Unlock Requirements: You can clear some prediction market bonuses for withdrawal by completing a single qualifying trade. Others require you to trade a dollar amount or a contract count first. The heavier the requirement, the more fees you pay and risk you take on before the credit is yours.
Other Terms and Conditions: We consider the other terms and conditions attached to any offer. It’s worth knowing if a prediction market requires you to meet the unlock requirement within a certain amount of time or to use other products (e.g., some fantasy pick’em apps have launched integrated prediction markets but offer bonuses that you can only unlock by submitting DFS entries).
See our operator-specific bonus guides for more details on each app’s welcome bonus, terms, and trading requirements.
Let’s consider a typical prediction market bonus: you deposit $10, complete $20 worth of trades, and receive a $20 trading bonus.
The trading bonus itself is not withdrawable, but any profits you net by using the bonus are treated as cash. Let’s say you claim the bonus, meet the $20 trading requirement, and receive your trading bonus.
Next, let’s say you deploy your $20 trading bonus on a single contract priced at $0.50 (an even money market). Here’s what can happen:
The contract resolves in your favor: Your $20 trade returns $40. Of that amount, the $20 profit is withdrawable.
The contract resolves against you: You’re out the $20 trading bonus, which you couldn’t have withdrawn anyway.
Half the time you walk away with $20, and half the time with nothing. That means the expected value is $10 in actual, withdrawable funds, before any trading fees.
If you don’t plan to trade $0.50 contracts exclusively, there’s an easy way to calculate the value of an offer at any price:
trade amount x (1 - p) = expected value
where p = probability of winning (on a fairly priced contract priced from $0 to $1, that’s just the current price).
For example, running the above example through this formula looks like this:
Trade amount = $20
p = 0.50 ($0.50 = 0.50, assuming the current price isn’t wildly out of synch with reality)
$20 x (1 - 0.50) = $10 expected value
This calculation is straightforward, but it has a non-obvious implication: non-withdrawable trading credits convert better on longshots because the profit multiple is larger. However, the longer the long shot, the more brutal the variance.
For example, if you use your $20 trading credit on a contract priced at $0.10, the math looks like this:
$20 x (1 - 0.10) = $18 expected value
That’s a great long term expected value, but here’s what you should know:
9 times out of 10, you’ll lose your $20 trading credit
1 time out of 10, you’ll turn your $20 trading credit into $180 of withdrawable cash (you received a $200 payout, minus the initial $20 trading credit for $180 in withdrawable cash)
Putting a trading bonus on favorites (contracts priced above $0.50) does the opposite. You get less variance at the cost of a lower conversion rate.
For example, if you use your $20 trading credit on a contract priced at $0.80, the math looks like this:
$20 x (1 - 0.80) = $4
The potential outcomes and frequencies move in the opposite direction compared to what happens when you use your trading bonus on a longshot:
8 times out of 10, you’ll turn your trading credit into $5 of withdrawable cash
2 times out of 10, you’ll lose your $20 trading credit and have nothing to show for it
Generally speaking, prediction market bonuses are smaller than traditional online betting bonuses but provide legitimate value.
You won’t see massive “up to $1,500 back” offers like you will with online sportsbooks, but that’s because you’re not competing directly against the house.
Instead, you’re trading contracts with other users, so the platform doesn’t live or die based on how often it beats its own customers (as is the case with online sportsbooks).
As a result, prediction market app bonuses tend to be straightforward and have fewer terms and conditions. However, it still pays to pay attention to the fine print. See our operator-specific promo guides for more details and a yes/no verdict on every app’s current welcome bonus.